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16 May 2013
Forex: EUR/AUD set for consolidation before next leg up?
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/AUD finished the session down 40 pips at 1.3023. Some analysts believe recent weakness in the Australia Wage Index data may be a sign of further RBA Cuts to come. This would obviously be a positive factor for the pair going forward and may be worth monitoring. Furthermore, market participants may want to keep an eye on the upcoming European CPI print which will be due out at 9:00GMT.
According to analysts at NAB Global Markets, “In Australia yesterday, in the wake of the (brief) excitement over the Budget, the Wage Cost Index (Q1) rose by 0.7% or 3.2%yoy, bang on our forecast and a touch weaker than the market had been expecting. This adds to the evidence that the outlook for inflation is for low outcomes ahead, paving the way for another easing by the RBA eventually. Markets arecurrently pricing a 17% chance of a rate cut in June.”
From a short term technical perspective, the 60min is still showing a lack of bullish momentum with the RSI now sitting the bearish range between 60 and 20. However, both short term moving averages and the RSI (14) are in bullish technical set up on the daily chart. These conflicting signals between the short and long term time frames may be suggesting the pair is due for consolidation over the next few days before taking a new leg up. Initial resistance sits at 1.3045 (the 50dma on 1 hour chart), followed by 1.3080 (supply candle on 1 hour chart). First support sits at 1.2980 (previous day low), followed by 1.2952 (the 9dma).
According to analysts at NAB Global Markets, “In Australia yesterday, in the wake of the (brief) excitement over the Budget, the Wage Cost Index (Q1) rose by 0.7% or 3.2%yoy, bang on our forecast and a touch weaker than the market had been expecting. This adds to the evidence that the outlook for inflation is for low outcomes ahead, paving the way for another easing by the RBA eventually. Markets arecurrently pricing a 17% chance of a rate cut in June.”
From a short term technical perspective, the 60min is still showing a lack of bullish momentum with the RSI now sitting the bearish range between 60 and 20. However, both short term moving averages and the RSI (14) are in bullish technical set up on the daily chart. These conflicting signals between the short and long term time frames may be suggesting the pair is due for consolidation over the next few days before taking a new leg up. Initial resistance sits at 1.3045 (the 50dma on 1 hour chart), followed by 1.3080 (supply candle on 1 hour chart). First support sits at 1.2980 (previous day low), followed by 1.2952 (the 9dma).