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21 May 2013
Flash: RBA minutes – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities reported that the May RBA Board Minutes more or less confirm their view that the Board is no rush to follow up May’s surprise rate cut (to a record 2.75%) with another one next month.
But if anything, they said that the body of the Minutes was balanced, citing that the effects of past rate cuts were still working their way through the economy, with households singled out as “showing signs of responding to …low rates”.
Given this, they do not get a sense that the RBA decided to cut on the continuing weak tone of the business surveys, which was weighed “possibly in part” by the high exchange rate. With the AUD having fallen significantly since the RBA last met (-4% against USD and –3% trade-weighted), a follow up June rate cut appears unlikely.
But if anything, they said that the body of the Minutes was balanced, citing that the effects of past rate cuts were still working their way through the economy, with households singled out as “showing signs of responding to …low rates”.
Given this, they do not get a sense that the RBA decided to cut on the continuing weak tone of the business surveys, which was weighed “possibly in part” by the high exchange rate. With the AUD having fallen significantly since the RBA last met (-4% against USD and –3% trade-weighted), a follow up June rate cut appears unlikely.