Back
3 Dec 2014
Australian Q3 GDP: Expecting a solid result - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Felicity Emmett, Senior Economist at ANZ, notes that after the release of key partial indicators, they expect Q3 Australian GDP to have risen +0.7% q/q and 2.7% y/y.
Key Quotes
"After the release of key partial indicators, we continue to forecast Q3 GDP to have risen +0.7% q/q and 2.7% y/y. The main new pieces of information for Q3 since our preliminary forecast are: a larger-than-expected contribution from inventories, wages, profits and net exports broadly in line with our expectations, and weaker public demand."
"A 0.7% q/q gain in GDP would be a relatively solid result, although annual GDP growth looks set to come in a bit softer than reported last quarter given downward revisions in the annual national accounts released last month. While this is an encouraging outcome given the headwinds the economy is currently facing, the detail in the numbers show that the strength is largely driven by strong export growth – domestic demand growth remains very soft, given the drag from the wind back in mining investment."
"Growth looks set to come in below trend for most of next year. The outlook remains clouded by a number of factors: the drag from the wind back in mining investment (which is likely to be much larger over coming quarters), a tentative non-mining recovery, a falling terms of trade and lower growth in public spending."
"We expect growth in the income-based measure of GDP to have been
weaker than growth in GDP(E). Partial indicators released yesterday suggest that the national accounts measure of wages rose only modestly in the quarter, although profits were broadly in line with our expectations. Gross mixed income (ie profits of unincorporated enterprises) is forecast to post a modest rise in Q3."
"Private non-farm inventories look to have risen 0.7% q/q in Q3 implying broadly no contribution to Q3 growth according to figures released yesterday. Note, however, that farm inventories can be volatile on a quarterly basis and can sometimes swing the overall inventories number around."
"After a surprisingly strong result in Q2, public demand looks to have fallen sharply in Q3. According to government finance figures released today, public demand fell 1.2% q/q in Q3 (excluding second-hand asset transfers between the public and private sectors which do not affect GDP)."
"Net exports are expected to have added a strong 0.8ppts to quarterly GDP growth in Q3 2014 according to today’s Balance of Payments data, which was in line with our forecast."
Key Quotes
"After the release of key partial indicators, we continue to forecast Q3 GDP to have risen +0.7% q/q and 2.7% y/y. The main new pieces of information for Q3 since our preliminary forecast are: a larger-than-expected contribution from inventories, wages, profits and net exports broadly in line with our expectations, and weaker public demand."
"A 0.7% q/q gain in GDP would be a relatively solid result, although annual GDP growth looks set to come in a bit softer than reported last quarter given downward revisions in the annual national accounts released last month. While this is an encouraging outcome given the headwinds the economy is currently facing, the detail in the numbers show that the strength is largely driven by strong export growth – domestic demand growth remains very soft, given the drag from the wind back in mining investment."
"Growth looks set to come in below trend for most of next year. The outlook remains clouded by a number of factors: the drag from the wind back in mining investment (which is likely to be much larger over coming quarters), a tentative non-mining recovery, a falling terms of trade and lower growth in public spending."
"We expect growth in the income-based measure of GDP to have been
weaker than growth in GDP(E). Partial indicators released yesterday suggest that the national accounts measure of wages rose only modestly in the quarter, although profits were broadly in line with our expectations. Gross mixed income (ie profits of unincorporated enterprises) is forecast to post a modest rise in Q3."
"Private non-farm inventories look to have risen 0.7% q/q in Q3 implying broadly no contribution to Q3 growth according to figures released yesterday. Note, however, that farm inventories can be volatile on a quarterly basis and can sometimes swing the overall inventories number around."
"After a surprisingly strong result in Q2, public demand looks to have fallen sharply in Q3. According to government finance figures released today, public demand fell 1.2% q/q in Q3 (excluding second-hand asset transfers between the public and private sectors which do not affect GDP)."
"Net exports are expected to have added a strong 0.8ppts to quarterly GDP growth in Q3 2014 according to today’s Balance of Payments data, which was in line with our forecast."