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11 Dec 2014
Australian jobs up next - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, provides the bank's view on today's key events, with the Australian employment figures the most immediate risk.
Key Quotes
"After all the confusion and revisions of Australia’s employment estimates in recent months, the series should be placed for a more plausible modest rise in Nov (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK). The revised series estimates a very muted 5k month gain over the past 6 months and a soggy -3k average in the past 3 months. Westpac looks for +10k in Nov, for about 1% y/y growth in total employment, in line with our composite labour market indicator. The median forecast is +15k but range from 0 to 35k. The unemployment rate seems likely to extend its cyclical rise to 6.3% from 6.2%, to print a new high since Sep 2002."
"Three Asian central banks review monetary policy today. Consensus is for no change from the Bank of Korea (2.0%), BSP/CB Philippines (4.0%) and Bank Indonesia (7.75%). But there is a small chance of a surprise from the BoK (cut) and BI (hike)."
"Europe’s calendar features the Swiss National Bank’s quarterly policy review and the ECB’s second targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO). The SNB is firmly expected to keep its 3mth LIBOR target at 0.0-0.25% (8:30am London) but in the press conference, could threaten policies such as negative interest rates in order to discourage any test of the EUR/CHF 1.2000 floor. At the previous meeting on 18 Sep, EUR/CHF started the day above 1.2100 but finished it at 1.2067, with no new steps or rhetoric at that meeting. The pair has averaged just 1.2024 over the past month, which should not be welcome by the SNB."
"The ECB’s 18 Sep TLTRO (cheap loans for banks but with strings attached aimed at raising lending to businesses) produced a very soft EUR82bn take-up. ECB officials quickly blamed this on the nearly completed asset quality review and predicted a much better response in December. A Bloomberg survey found a median forecast of just EUR148bn. Such a number would leave the ECB a long way short of its intention to expand its balance sheet by a total of roughly EUR1trn, with other measures quite small scale so far. This would raise the pressure for large scale QE at the 22 January meeting."
"The US data calendar is noteworthy. Nov retail sales are seen up 0.4% total, 0.5% ex-autos & gasoline. Weekly jobless claims are Nov import prices are also due, with the latter weighed by the stronger USD and weak oil prices (f/c -2.6% y/y)."
Key Quotes
"After all the confusion and revisions of Australia’s employment estimates in recent months, the series should be placed for a more plausible modest rise in Nov (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK). The revised series estimates a very muted 5k month gain over the past 6 months and a soggy -3k average in the past 3 months. Westpac looks for +10k in Nov, for about 1% y/y growth in total employment, in line with our composite labour market indicator. The median forecast is +15k but range from 0 to 35k. The unemployment rate seems likely to extend its cyclical rise to 6.3% from 6.2%, to print a new high since Sep 2002."
"Three Asian central banks review monetary policy today. Consensus is for no change from the Bank of Korea (2.0%), BSP/CB Philippines (4.0%) and Bank Indonesia (7.75%). But there is a small chance of a surprise from the BoK (cut) and BI (hike)."
"Europe’s calendar features the Swiss National Bank’s quarterly policy review and the ECB’s second targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO). The SNB is firmly expected to keep its 3mth LIBOR target at 0.0-0.25% (8:30am London) but in the press conference, could threaten policies such as negative interest rates in order to discourage any test of the EUR/CHF 1.2000 floor. At the previous meeting on 18 Sep, EUR/CHF started the day above 1.2100 but finished it at 1.2067, with no new steps or rhetoric at that meeting. The pair has averaged just 1.2024 over the past month, which should not be welcome by the SNB."
"The ECB’s 18 Sep TLTRO (cheap loans for banks but with strings attached aimed at raising lending to businesses) produced a very soft EUR82bn take-up. ECB officials quickly blamed this on the nearly completed asset quality review and predicted a much better response in December. A Bloomberg survey found a median forecast of just EUR148bn. Such a number would leave the ECB a long way short of its intention to expand its balance sheet by a total of roughly EUR1trn, with other measures quite small scale so far. This would raise the pressure for large scale QE at the 22 January meeting."
"The US data calendar is noteworthy. Nov retail sales are seen up 0.4% total, 0.5% ex-autos & gasoline. Weekly jobless claims are Nov import prices are also due, with the latter weighed by the stronger USD and weak oil prices (f/c -2.6% y/y)."