Back
24 Dec 2014
China: Growth prospects for 2015 – BNP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Christine Peltier of BNP Paribas, shares the growth prospects for China for the year ahead, anticipating the real GDP to stand at 7.3% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015.
Key Quotes
“Economic growth has continued to slow down, the downward correction in the real estate market has persisted despite some policy easing measures, inflation has decelerated sharply and real interest rates have increased.”
“As a result, the central bank has recently expanded its scope of action. In the short term, the more accommodative monetary policy, the expansionist fiscal policy and structural reform should help economic growth continue to avoid an abrupt slowdown.”
“We project real GDP growth at 7.3% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015, principally due to structural factors, including: distortions in the industry and the real estate sector, excessive corporate domestic debt, the tightening regulatory framework and asset quality deterioration in the financial sector, lasting moderation in external demand.”
“Nonetheless, in an international environment that is not yet improving strongly, a more accommodating monetary policy and an expansionist fiscal policy let us to continue forecasting a scenario based on a soft landing in economic growth.”
“The Chinese government, who has just completed its 'Central Economic Work Conference', insisted on the need to maintain a stable economic growth.”
“In addition to a looser policy mix, China must also support steady development in the services sectors to continue to invigorate the labour market. Otherwise, the slowdown in household revenue growth could prevent private consumption from taking over from foreign demand as a new growth engine.”
Key Quotes
“Economic growth has continued to slow down, the downward correction in the real estate market has persisted despite some policy easing measures, inflation has decelerated sharply and real interest rates have increased.”
“As a result, the central bank has recently expanded its scope of action. In the short term, the more accommodative monetary policy, the expansionist fiscal policy and structural reform should help economic growth continue to avoid an abrupt slowdown.”
“We project real GDP growth at 7.3% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015, principally due to structural factors, including: distortions in the industry and the real estate sector, excessive corporate domestic debt, the tightening regulatory framework and asset quality deterioration in the financial sector, lasting moderation in external demand.”
“Nonetheless, in an international environment that is not yet improving strongly, a more accommodating monetary policy and an expansionist fiscal policy let us to continue forecasting a scenario based on a soft landing in economic growth.”
“The Chinese government, who has just completed its 'Central Economic Work Conference', insisted on the need to maintain a stable economic growth.”
“In addition to a looser policy mix, China must also support steady development in the services sectors to continue to invigorate the labour market. Otherwise, the slowdown in household revenue growth could prevent private consumption from taking over from foreign demand as a new growth engine.”