Back
10 Jul 2013
Flash: UK GDP risks shifting to downside – RBS
FXstreet.com (New York) - Just as a consensus was forming around a more positive UK growth outlook, a bout of soggy industrial data and some grim back revisions became public, notes Economist Ross Walker at RBS.
The latest industry data does not derail the UK ‘recovery’ but should serve to temper some of the more excitable commentary (2013 GDP forecasts of 1%-2% continue to appear too optimistic). “The divergence between the manufacturing surveys and official data also provides a timely warning against assuming the improvement in the services surveys fully materializes in the ONS data. Ultimately, “the risks having shifted from the upside to the downside.” Walker warns.
The latest industry data does not derail the UK ‘recovery’ but should serve to temper some of the more excitable commentary (2013 GDP forecasts of 1%-2% continue to appear too optimistic). “The divergence between the manufacturing surveys and official data also provides a timely warning against assuming the improvement in the services surveys fully materializes in the ONS data. Ultimately, “the risks having shifted from the upside to the downside.” Walker warns.