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9 Apr 2015
USD choppy but still in a broad range – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities expect the Fed to begin its rate normalization process in September, and further expect a broad period of consolidation ahead for the Dollar.
Key Quotes
“The nuggets of information contained in the March FOMC minutes again seemed to offer something for everyone. The debate regarding a June rate rise looked a little more animated than perhaps markets were prepared for but policy makers still seem to be favouring a later rather than sooner start to the tightening process overall.”
“If anything, the data run since the middle of March has probably reaffirmed that view for those policy makers in any sort of doubt. The US economy has recovered very quickly after the sluggish Q1s seen in recent years but the expected rebound this year may not come quickly enough to really convince a group that clearly wants the economic ducks lined up that it can raise rates in June."
“We still favour a September start to the tightening process.”
“The USD popped a little higher on the headlines and US 10Y yields were choppy but there was little significant change in market-driven probabilities on Fed tightening in the months ahead.”
“Essentially, we can see the USD positives in the minutes but we don’t think there is enough here to drive the USD significantly higher at this point. We rather think the USD remains in a broader consolidation band for now (and possibly for a period of time ahead—until the Fed’s convictions firm up).”
Key Quotes
“The nuggets of information contained in the March FOMC minutes again seemed to offer something for everyone. The debate regarding a June rate rise looked a little more animated than perhaps markets were prepared for but policy makers still seem to be favouring a later rather than sooner start to the tightening process overall.”
“If anything, the data run since the middle of March has probably reaffirmed that view for those policy makers in any sort of doubt. The US economy has recovered very quickly after the sluggish Q1s seen in recent years but the expected rebound this year may not come quickly enough to really convince a group that clearly wants the economic ducks lined up that it can raise rates in June."
“We still favour a September start to the tightening process.”
“The USD popped a little higher on the headlines and US 10Y yields were choppy but there was little significant change in market-driven probabilities on Fed tightening in the months ahead.”
“Essentially, we can see the USD positives in the minutes but we don’t think there is enough here to drive the USD significantly higher at this point. We rather think the USD remains in a broader consolidation band for now (and possibly for a period of time ahead—until the Fed’s convictions firm up).”