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17 Apr 2015
US data preview for the week ahead – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team previews the key data releases in the US for the week ahead, expecting a rebound in the durable goods orders, and lower correction in Markit manufacturing PMI.
Key Quotes
“The data calendar for the coming week is relatively light and we are in the black out period for FOMC speeches ahead of the 28-29 April FOMC meeting.”
“The most important data should be durable goods orders for March and the Markit flash manufacturing PMI for April. In particular data on the key non-defence durable goods orders ex. aircraft has been extraordinarily weak lately with the average growth rate over the past three months at -8% annualised. We expect part of the weakness to have been caused by temporary factors and in line with consensus expect a rebound.”
“The Markit manufacturing PMI remains at an elevated level and has improved in the past two months contrary to other data related to the manufacturing sector. Hence it could be time for a correction lower in the index but the extent of decline will be important as it gives an indication of how severe is the current soft patch in the US.”
“On top of these releases, we will get March data on new and existing home sales. The NAHB index rebounded in April suggesting that housing market activity is improving. However, given the spike in new home sales in February we and consensus look for a slight set-back in March. For existing home sales we look for an increase of 3.4% which would take the annualised pace of sales to 5.05 million.”
Key Quotes
“The data calendar for the coming week is relatively light and we are in the black out period for FOMC speeches ahead of the 28-29 April FOMC meeting.”
“The most important data should be durable goods orders for March and the Markit flash manufacturing PMI for April. In particular data on the key non-defence durable goods orders ex. aircraft has been extraordinarily weak lately with the average growth rate over the past three months at -8% annualised. We expect part of the weakness to have been caused by temporary factors and in line with consensus expect a rebound.”
“The Markit manufacturing PMI remains at an elevated level and has improved in the past two months contrary to other data related to the manufacturing sector. Hence it could be time for a correction lower in the index but the extent of decline will be important as it gives an indication of how severe is the current soft patch in the US.”
“On top of these releases, we will get March data on new and existing home sales. The NAHB index rebounded in April suggesting that housing market activity is improving. However, given the spike in new home sales in February we and consensus look for a slight set-back in March. For existing home sales we look for an increase of 3.4% which would take the annualised pace of sales to 5.05 million.”