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21 Apr 2015
Specs remain divided on oil – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on the positioning in the oil markets, noting that although bullish views hit an all-time high last week, the data shows the internal division among speculators.
Key Quotes
“An interesting piece of data was released by the Intercontinental Exchange yesterday. The Commitment of Traders report showed that money managers’ net position in Brent futures hit an all-time high last week. The “headline” data thus suggest that speculators as a group bet quite heavily on an increase in oil prices.”
“On the other hand, the difference between a number of traders holding long positions and a number of traders holding short positions in Brent futures was relatively narrow (compared to the past episodes of high net position) which signals that though speculators as a group expect increase in oil prices, they are internally divided in their expectations.”
“Clearly, some of them must have been betting quite heavily on an increase of oil prices. Tomorrow’s EIA data on US crude & products inventories will therefore certainly draw market attention (as well as similar API data released today) and could trigger quite a strong reaction, especially if the stocks figures surprised to the upside and some speculators unwound their long positions.”
Key Quotes
“An interesting piece of data was released by the Intercontinental Exchange yesterday. The Commitment of Traders report showed that money managers’ net position in Brent futures hit an all-time high last week. The “headline” data thus suggest that speculators as a group bet quite heavily on an increase in oil prices.”
“On the other hand, the difference between a number of traders holding long positions and a number of traders holding short positions in Brent futures was relatively narrow (compared to the past episodes of high net position) which signals that though speculators as a group expect increase in oil prices, they are internally divided in their expectations.”
“Clearly, some of them must have been betting quite heavily on an increase of oil prices. Tomorrow’s EIA data on US crude & products inventories will therefore certainly draw market attention (as well as similar API data released today) and could trigger quite a strong reaction, especially if the stocks figures surprised to the upside and some speculators unwound their long positions.”