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4 Jun 2015
Outlook for AUD/USD and crosses – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at ANZ shares the outlook and the expected range for AUD/USD and crosses.
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: The ISM non-manufacturing survey weakened with soft details. While the level remains above long-run averages, the softening highlights that the US Q2 rebound remains soft. The Fed’s Beige book noted declines in activity in US oil regions. Some AUD optimism, however, may be unwound by retail sales and trade deficit figures released today which we expect to be weak.
Expected range: 0.7720 – 0.7820”
“AUD/NZD: The AUD/NZD is testing important pivots in the 1.0875 to 1.0925 zone. The strength yesterday after Australia’s Q1 GDP headline strength may be tempered today by retail sales and the trade deficit. But we suspect weakness would be a buying opportunity for a test of this pivot zone.
Expected range: 1.0810 – 1.0940”
“AUD/EUR: The ECB nudged up its inflation forecasts, boosting EUR. ECB President Draghi, however, warned that the ECB could increase its QE program if required, and noted that the level of the exchange rate was one of the factors they are focusing on in particular. The EUR should find a cap from this.
Expected range: 0.6880 – 0.6975”
“AUD/JPY: This cross consolidated after the Q1 GDP strength. Markets seem comfortable with current levels for now.
Expected range: 96.30 – 97.00”
“AUD/GBP: GBP lost ground overnight after the May service sector PMI missed expectations by a decent amount. However, the level of services activity remained solid, cautioning again overt AUD/GBP optimism.
Expected range: 0.5040 – 0.5100”
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: The ISM non-manufacturing survey weakened with soft details. While the level remains above long-run averages, the softening highlights that the US Q2 rebound remains soft. The Fed’s Beige book noted declines in activity in US oil regions. Some AUD optimism, however, may be unwound by retail sales and trade deficit figures released today which we expect to be weak.
Expected range: 0.7720 – 0.7820”
“AUD/NZD: The AUD/NZD is testing important pivots in the 1.0875 to 1.0925 zone. The strength yesterday after Australia’s Q1 GDP headline strength may be tempered today by retail sales and the trade deficit. But we suspect weakness would be a buying opportunity for a test of this pivot zone.
Expected range: 1.0810 – 1.0940”
“AUD/EUR: The ECB nudged up its inflation forecasts, boosting EUR. ECB President Draghi, however, warned that the ECB could increase its QE program if required, and noted that the level of the exchange rate was one of the factors they are focusing on in particular. The EUR should find a cap from this.
Expected range: 0.6880 – 0.6975”
“AUD/JPY: This cross consolidated after the Q1 GDP strength. Markets seem comfortable with current levels for now.
Expected range: 96.30 – 97.00”
“AUD/GBP: GBP lost ground overnight after the May service sector PMI missed expectations by a decent amount. However, the level of services activity remained solid, cautioning again overt AUD/GBP optimism.
Expected range: 0.5040 – 0.5100”