UK: Economy was doing a bit better than expected heading into the referendum - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the first taste of post-Brexit data came out overnight with the release of a special one-off GfK consumer confidence survey.

Key Quotes

“The report showed a significant decline in across the board, with key drops in the Economic Situation Next 12 Months indicator, which fell by 15 points vs June’s reading, and is consistent with a 5-point fall in the PMIs for July. The Markit/KPMG demand for labour index also showed continued deterioration into June, with permanent staff recruitment activity falling below the key 50 level for the first time since 2012.

Trade data for May showed continued deterioration in the trade balances, though previous months were revised somewhat higher so the starting point was better. Despite the monthly volatility, today's report leaves trade on track to contribute to GDP growth in Q2, again reinforcing the message that the underlying economy was doing a bit better than expected heading into the referendum.”