AUD/USD pops 100 1hr sma and eyes YTD highs on 0.76 handle

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7561, up 0.16% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7564 and low at 0.7528.

Bullish bets on the US dollar trimmed - Rabobank

AUD/USD has rallied in the last hour as the dollar is sold off across the board. The price has penetrated the 100 sma on the one-hour chart at 0.7550, breaking the mild descending trend line and looks set for an attack on last week's closing highs at 0.7572 with eyes on the 0.76 handle and YTD highs at 0.7608.  However, while near term bias is to the upside, the Fed’s assertive tightening bias plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar over the medium term.

AUD/USD levels

Spot is presently trading at 0.7561, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7564 (Daily High), 0.7574 (Yesterday's High), 0.7578 (Daily Classic R1), 0.7584 (YTD High) and 0.7584 (Monthly High). Support below can be found at 0.7560 (Daily Open), 0.7557 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.7553 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.7552 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 0.7546 (Hourly 20 EMA).

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD’s last weeks high of 0.7608 was not been confirmed by the daily RSI – and the market has basically been held sideways to slightly lower. "We suspect that prices will need to go sub 7400, the 55 day ma, to alleviate upside pressure and trigger losses to 0.7312/00 then 0.7161/64, the recent lows.

Above the market lies the 0.7648 2013-2016 channel (where it should struggle). Only above 0.7648 will negate our negative bias and introduce scope to the 0.7778/0.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement."