Canada: Employment numbers to gain by 10,000 in February – BMO CM

Benjamin Reitzes, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, suggests that they’ve officially thrown in the towel on looking for some retracement of the recent surge in Canadian employment and are calling for a 10,000 gain in February.

Key Quotes

“The solid run of data has prompted us to take a more upbeat view on the economic backdrop, as it appears conditions have started to improve meaningfully. And, mild weather in February may have provided a lift to sectors such as construction.”

“We’re not going to fight the better trend, but the risks to our call remain skewed to the downside. Note that jobs have disappointed in 5 of the past 8 years in February. And, the fact that the 6-month increase is the best since 2002 suggests the data are ripe for a correction.”

“Given the strong run of data, a softer report, isn’t likely to change our view on the outlook, while another good gain would only strengthen the “better data” story that’s evolved over the past couple of months.”