UK: Headline CPI to remain unchanged at 3.0% - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for UK’s headline CPI to remain unchanged at 3.0% y/y in November, which is in line with both consensus and the BoE’s forecast from the November IR.

Key Quotes

“Underlying that is an ease in core inflation from 2.7% to 2.6% y/y, due largely to base effects as the larger gains from last year fall out of the equation, while energy prices will continue to support the headline due to the recent rise in crude oil prices. While core inflation momentum has declined as peak impact of exchange rate pass-through is behind us, it’s still far stronger than that of the Eurozone for example, so still supports the idea of a slow and steady rate hike cycle from the BoE.”

“EUR: We see a bit of upside risk to the ZEW data for December. We look for the current assessment to rise a touch to 89.2 (mkt 88.5), and for expectations to remain unchanged at 18.7 (mkt 18.0).”