Back
18 Mar 2014
Flash: Mrs Watanabe to support USD/JPY appreciation - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura, JPY selling positions held by Japanese margin traders, aka Mrs. Watanabe, remained high in February, said the Financial Futures Association of Japan.
Key Quotes
"The total amount of JPY short positions at major OTC brokers fell to JPY2416bn ($23.6bn) from JPY2955bn the previous month, but this is still more than the 2013 average (JPY1920bn). The 2011-12 average was even smaller at JPY1592bn, so margin trader activity remains much stronger than before regime change in December 2012."
"The fall in JPY selling positions in February was mostly from positions against EUR and GBP. EURJPY positions were net short at JPY123bn for the first time in two months while GBPJPY long positions fell to JPY25bn from JPY149bn in January. By contrast, USDJPY long positions fell just marginally to JPY1521bn from JPY1594bn."
"The Nomura Individual Investor Survey in March suggested that retail investors' preference for USD remains strong and they forecast USDJPY to strengthen in the next 3 months. Most recent data based on a smaller sample show USDJPY long positions remain high so far in March. USDJPY long positions at five major brokers had declined to JPY421bn ($4.1bn) as of last Wednesday from JPY432bn the previous week."
"The long positions are smaller than at the end of January, but they are much bigger than in the first half of 2013. In the toshin market, the decline in consumer confidence before the sales tax hike is slowing the momentum, but we judge retail investors still see more upside than downside room for USDJPY."
"The still strong JPY selling positions held by Mrs. Watanabe confirm this view. We expect retail flows to support the medium-term USDJPY appreciation trend this year."
Key Quotes
"The total amount of JPY short positions at major OTC brokers fell to JPY2416bn ($23.6bn) from JPY2955bn the previous month, but this is still more than the 2013 average (JPY1920bn). The 2011-12 average was even smaller at JPY1592bn, so margin trader activity remains much stronger than before regime change in December 2012."
"The fall in JPY selling positions in February was mostly from positions against EUR and GBP. EURJPY positions were net short at JPY123bn for the first time in two months while GBPJPY long positions fell to JPY25bn from JPY149bn in January. By contrast, USDJPY long positions fell just marginally to JPY1521bn from JPY1594bn."
"The Nomura Individual Investor Survey in March suggested that retail investors' preference for USD remains strong and they forecast USDJPY to strengthen in the next 3 months. Most recent data based on a smaller sample show USDJPY long positions remain high so far in March. USDJPY long positions at five major brokers had declined to JPY421bn ($4.1bn) as of last Wednesday from JPY432bn the previous week."
"The long positions are smaller than at the end of January, but they are much bigger than in the first half of 2013. In the toshin market, the decline in consumer confidence before the sales tax hike is slowing the momentum, but we judge retail investors still see more upside than downside room for USDJPY."
"The still strong JPY selling positions held by Mrs. Watanabe confirm this view. We expect retail flows to support the medium-term USDJPY appreciation trend this year."