UK: GDP growth likely slowed in Q1 – Danske Bank

In the UK, the first estimate of GDP growth in Q1 will be released and according to indicators, GDP growth slowed in Q1 compared to Q4 17, the question is more by how much, suggests the research team at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“While the PMIs suggest GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 0.3%, the NIESR GDP estimate is as low as 0.2%. We estimate GDP growth was 0.25%, implying an annual growth rate of 1.4% y/y (don't be surprised if it is only 1.3%), which is among the lowest in the advanced economies. Looking at real wage growth and business investments' intention, it is difficult to see a scenario with much higher GDP growth in the UK this year despite the political agreement on transition.”