Russia: CBR holds amidst pro-inflationary risk tilt - TDS

Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, notes that in Russia, the CBR left the Key Rate unchanged at 7.25% as forecast by TD and the unanimous consensus.

Key Quotes

“The balance of risks is shifted towards pro-inflationary risks. Monetary conditions are close to neutral but are now at the tight end of the monetary policy spectrum.”

“The market reaction has been negligible, as expected.”

“Going forward, we expect further easing to be constrained by a possibly adverse dynamic of inflation expectations. However, we still see scope for further 50bps of easing in the forecast horizon.”