AUD/USD peeps above key trendline hurdle on better-than-expected Aussie trade surplus

• Australia July trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms bettered estimates but registered a decline of AUD 386 million on the month.
• The AUD/USD rose above the confluence of the falling trendline and the 100-hour moving average (MA) seen at 0.72.

The AUD/USD is struggling to find acceptance above the key resistance at 0.72 despite a better-than-expected Aussie trade surplus.

The trendline sloping downwards from the Aug. 28 high and Aug. 29 high is offering resistance at 0.72. Notably, the 100-hour MA is also lined up at that level.

The pair peeped above the technical hurdle after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the July trade surplus at AUD 1,551 million, up 151 million from the consensus estimate of AUD 1,400 million, but down AUD 386 million from the June surplus of AUD 1873 million.

However, so far, a convincing break above 0.72 remains elusive, possibly due to a drop in exports. The ABS data showed exports declined 1 percent, following a 3 percent rise in June, adding credence to the argument that global trade tensions are having a negative impact on the Australian economy.

Looking forward, the currency pair may find acceptance above the falling trendline, although fears of a further escalation of the trade war between the US and China could keep the gains under check.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Resistance: 0.7238 (Aug. 24 low), 0.7259 (100-hour moving average), 0.7310 (July 2 low)

Support: 0.7184 (61.8% Fib R of 2011 low/2015 high), 0.7144 (previous day's low), 0.71 (psychological support)