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21 Aug 2014
German August PMI Manufacturing expected to drop to 51.5 - TD Securities
FXStreet (Łódź) - Prashant Newnaha, Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities believes that the German PMI Manufacturing fell to 51.5 in August from 52.4 in July.
Key quotes
"The risks around this are exceptionally wide this month."
"On the upside, we know that the PMI generally leads the IP and factory orders data, so if we are going to see German growth turn around in the second half of the year from the abysmal hard data that we saw at the end of Q2, we should see an improvement in the PMI data now, and the improvement in the Chinese PMI would normally tend to be feeding through at this stage."
"But on the other hand, it’s hard to say how much sentiment will be affected from the uncertainty around geopolitical tensions, and Russian sanctions in particular, and how much respondents may have been affected by onslaught of downside surprises to the German data over the last couple of weeks."
Key quotes
"The risks around this are exceptionally wide this month."
"On the upside, we know that the PMI generally leads the IP and factory orders data, so if we are going to see German growth turn around in the second half of the year from the abysmal hard data that we saw at the end of Q2, we should see an improvement in the PMI data now, and the improvement in the Chinese PMI would normally tend to be feeding through at this stage."
"But on the other hand, it’s hard to say how much sentiment will be affected from the uncertainty around geopolitical tensions, and Russian sanctions in particular, and how much respondents may have been affected by onslaught of downside surprises to the German data over the last couple of weeks."