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14 May 2013
Forex Flash: AUD/USD, outlook is bearish but be patient - RBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD bearish outlook has strengthened after the technical break of the previous 1.02 to 1.04 range, says Greg Gibbs, currency analyst at RBS.
Greg argues: "The reasons for AUD to fall are that the USD is stronger and confidence around growth in China has deteriorated. Commodity indicators are generally pointing down, but have not collapsed and in fact some have stabilised in recent trading."
Mr Gibbs sees "a high probability that recent shorts in AUD are frustrated out of positions and it rebounds to 1.02 again."
"We have been forecasting 0.98 at year end and a steady decline over the coming years. The growth outlook in China remains key to commodities and AUD. We see downside risks to our year end and year ahead forecasts" he added.
Greg argues: "The reasons for AUD to fall are that the USD is stronger and confidence around growth in China has deteriorated. Commodity indicators are generally pointing down, but have not collapsed and in fact some have stabilised in recent trading."
Mr Gibbs sees "a high probability that recent shorts in AUD are frustrated out of positions and it rebounds to 1.02 again."
"We have been forecasting 0.98 at year end and a steady decline over the coming years. The growth outlook in China remains key to commodities and AUD. We see downside risks to our year end and year ahead forecasts" he added.